This year’s ACC Tournament could be as vital as it has been in recent history to NCAA Tourney bids…here’s how I project the seeds right now. For the next couple weeks, I’ll have the post-weekend edition on OTB and over at Raycom after the mid-week games.
I’ve been crunching numbers, breaking down schedules, looking at tiebreakers, and flipping coins. Here’s how I project the ACC season to finish…
|Team||ACC Record||ACC Seed||Proj. Tiebreak|
1) Duke vs. 8] Virginia/9) Boston College
2) Virginia Tech vs. 7) Georgia Tech/10) Miami
3) Maryland vs. 6) Clemson/11) North Carolina
4) Wake Forest vs. 5) Florida State/12) NC State
> The big changes from the last projections is moving Wake Forest and Maryland back to 10-6 from 11-5–and Clemson moving to 9-7 from 8-8. FSU, even with the tiebreaker, is shut out of the top 4 seeds.
> On the tiebreakers, I was going off from the ACC official site page on them. Which say…
> On the 3 team tiebreaker, all of the head-to-head records between the 3 teams are combined for each school to get the best winning percentage. Slots 3-5 are affected here with Maryland at 2-1, Wake with a 1-1 record, and Florida State on the losing end at 1-2.
> In the other tiebreaker scenario, BC swept the Canes to get the 9th seed over Miami.
> Duke keeps the same dancing partners with FSU and NC State. I’m still not a fan of the Devils winning the tourney with their draw–though Wake Forest is struggling along with Virginia. The potential quarterfinal matchups to watch are Virginia Tech/Clemson and Maryland/Georgia Tech–revenge will be on the minds of the Tigers and Jackets. The tourney winner really could be a coin flip as its hard to put confidence in any team right now.
> Thanks to a viewers kind email, I realized I had the bracket all messed up…spent a bit too much time on the tiebreakers and did some wrong assumptions on the bracket. Duke’s path to the semis gets a bit easier without the FSU/NC State matchup out of the gates. Georgia Tech will be a desperate quarterfinals for Virginia Tech which will be tough. Clemson and Maryland meet for a 3rd time this season in what should be a good one. There’s a good chance we see a Hokies/Devils rematch in the ACC finals from these projections.
Looking to tweak this after each series of games—your input is encouraged. What team will perform better than projected? Who will be worse? Who do you like in the matchups to win the ACC Tourney right now?