ACC Tournament Projections–Edition Four

Posted by Brandon Rink on February 23, 2010 under Other ACC Coverage | 5 Comments to Read

This year’s ACC Tournament could be as vital as it has been in recent history to NCAA Tourney bids…here’s how I project the seeds right now. For the next couple weeks, I’ll have the post-weekend edition on OTB and over at Raycom after the mid-week games.

I’ve been crunching numbers, breaking down schedules, looking at tiebreakers, and flipping coins. Here’s how I project the ACC season to finish…

Team ACC Record ACC Seed Proj. Tiebreak
Duke 13-3

1

Virginia Tech 11-5

2

Maryland 10-6

3

2-1
Wake Forest 10-6

4

1-1
Florida State 10-6

5

1-2
Clemson 9-7

6

Georgia Tech 8-8

7

Virginia 7-9

8

Boston College 5-11

9

2-0
Miami 5-11

10

0-2
North Carolina 4-12

11

NC State 3-13

12

———————-

Projected Matchups

1) Duke vs. 8] Virginia/9) Boston College

2) Virginia Tech vs. 7) Georgia Tech/10) Miami

3) Maryland vs. 6) Clemson/11) North Carolina

4) Wake Forest vs. 5) Florida State/12) NC State

Projection Quirks/Commentary

> The big changes from the last projections is moving Wake Forest and Maryland back to 10-6 from 11-5–and Clemson moving to 9-7 from 8-8. FSU, even with the tiebreaker, is shut out of the top 4 seeds.

> On the tiebreakers, I was going off from the ACC official site page on them. Which say…

> On the 3 team tiebreaker, all of the head-to-head records between the 3 teams are combined for each school to get the best winning percentage. Slots 3-5 are affected here with Maryland at 2-1, Wake with a 1-1 record, and Florida State on the losing end at 1-2.

> In the other tiebreaker scenario, BC swept the Canes to get the 9th seed over Miami.

> Duke keeps the same dancing partners with FSU and NC State. I’m still not a fan of the Devils winning the tourney with their draw–though Wake Forest is struggling along with Virginia. The potential quarterfinal matchups to watch are Virginia Tech/Clemson and Maryland/Georgia Tech–revenge will be on the minds of the Tigers and Jackets. The tourney winner really could be a coin flip as its hard to put confidence in any team right now.

> Thanks to a viewers kind email, I realized I had the bracket all messed up…spent a bit too much time on the tiebreakers and did some wrong assumptions on the bracket. Duke’s path to the semis gets a bit easier without the FSU/NC State matchup out of the gates. Georgia Tech will be a desperate quarterfinals for Virginia Tech which will be tough. Clemson and Maryland meet for a 3rd time this season in what should be a good one. There’s a good chance we see a Hokies/Devils rematch in the ACC finals from these projections.

Looking to tweak this after each series of games—your input is encouraged. What team will perform better than projected? Who will be worse? Who do you like in the matchups to win the ACC Tourney right now?


  • MartyC said,

    9-7? Which two games do you see the Tigers winning? Georgia Tech and…..

  • B. Rink said,

    Crazy as it sounds, I have the Tigers winning at Maryland now. Clemson is playing too well right now to go 1-3 at the end. They could also pull the win off at FSU or Wake as they already beat FSU and Wake is struggling. 8-8 just does not look right for how they are playing right now.

  • MartyC said,

    I guess it COULD happen. I just dont have much confidence in this team on the road. Now if they continue to hit their FTs and get to the line often their chances improve, but you’ve got to remember that they are “playing well” because they’ve been playing mediocre teams at home.

  • B. Rink said,

    @MartyC

    There really aren’t many teams in the ACC that are exceptional. The difference between teams 1-12 isn’t much which leads me to think that the Tigers won’t go 1-7 on the road. Let’s not forget, Clemson dominated Maryland defensively–shutting down Vasquez and Hayes. The Tigers have the defensive matchups to beat the Terps–the question is whether they can maintain this recent burst of offense.

  • MartyC said,

    agree on the question for Clemson is on offense…and that is what concerns me. A road win in any of the last three road games would impress me (to varying degrees depending on where it occurs). I just haven’t seen anything on the road that would lead me to believe the Tigers are capablel. At home -ok – an iffy Miami team and a fading UVA team that – lets face it – isnt very good. And Miami took us to the last 2 minutes.

    I love Jerai (as you could tell from my twitter post :)…but if we are depending on 18 points from him to win…..uhhhh….