NCAA/ACC Tourney Projections – 2/28

Posted by Brandon Rink on February 27, 2011 under ACC Basketball | Comments are off for this article

With Virginia Tech's big win over Duke, Clemson and BC are the main teams left fighting for an NCAA bid from the ACC. (Per Independent Mail)

One week to go in the regular season (and just two to Selection Sunday!) – projecting the ACC and NCAA Tournament bids…

Projected ACC Standings

Team ACC Record ACC Seed Proj. Tiebreak
Duke 14-2 1
UNC 13-3 2
Florida State 11-5 3
Virginia Tech 10-6 4
Clemson 9-7 5
Boston College 8-8 6 2-0
Maryland 8-8 7 0-2
Miami 6-10 8 1-0
Virginia 6-10 9 0-1
NC State 5-11 10 1-0
Georgia Tech 5-11 11 0-1
Wake Forest 1-15 12

———————-

Projected ACC Tournament Matchups

1) Duke vs. 8) Miami/9) Virginia

2) UNC vs. 7) Maryland/10) NC State

3) Florida State vs. 6) Boston College/11) Georgia Tech

4) Virginia Tech vs. 5) Clemson/12) Wake Forest

Game Schedule

Day One (March 10)

12:00 (EST)–8) Miami vs. 9) Virginia
2:00–5) Clemson vs. 12) Wake Forest
7:00–7) Maryland vs. 10) NC State
9:00–6) Boston College vs. 11) Georgia Tech

Day Two (March 11)

12:00–1) Duke vs. 8] Miami/9) Virginia
2:00–4) Virginia Tech vs. 5) Clemson/12) Wake Forest
7:00–2) UNC vs. 7) Maryland/10) NC State
9:00–3) Florida State vs. 6) Boston College/11) Georgia Tech

Day Three (March 12)

1:00–1) Duke vs. 8) Miami/9) Virginia (vs.) 4) Virginia Tech vs. 5) Clemson/12) Wake Forest
3:00–2) UNC vs. 7) Maryland/10) NC State (vs.) 3) FSU vs. 6) Boston College/11) Georgia Tech

Day Four (March 13)

1:00–ACC Championship

Gut NCAA Bid Feeling Now

In: Duke, UNC, Florida State, Virginia Tech.

Just Out: Clemson, Boston College.

Out: Maryland, Miami.

Gut NCAA Bid Feeling Projected

In: Duke, UNC, FSU, Virginia Tech, Clemson.

Just Out: Boston College.

Out: Maryland, Miami.

NCAA/ACC Tourney Notes

  • Going out on a bit of a limb by saying Duke stays atop the ACC after a blah performance at Virginia Tech. That means they do go to Chapel Hill and win. I just tend to think this is the Maryland loss of ‘10 for Duke that sends them into a strong finish (but not necessarily as strong as then).
  • Five ACC teams in the NCAA Tourney field – all because of Virginia Tech’s upset of Duke. Basically, I think the Hokies beat BC and possibly win a couple ACC Tourney games to cement their status. Clemson splits their final two by taking down Virginia Tech, but losing to Duke – beating Wake in the ACC Tourney and maybe winning in the next round too.
  • Watch out for BC in the ACC Tournament in this scenario. Georgia Tech should be a gimme and they’ll have a good shot at knocking off the ‘Noles too. At 8-8, will two tournament wins get them in? Not sure – could very well knockout a fellow ACC team if it does, but they probably need at least to make it to the ACC Tournament final.
  • Maryland needs to win the rematch with UNC in Greensboro – another win wouldn’t hurt either. FSU is their best win right now – a solid win, but they need a couple more if they don’t finish better than .500 in ACC play.
  • How about a possible Duke/VT rematch in the ACC semis? Delicious.

Here we are – last week of the regular season – who’s in? Who’s out? ACC B-Ball Report with weekend wrap-up and picks coming up…

ACC B-Ball Report: 02/26/11

Posted by Brandon Rink on February 26, 2011 under ACC Basketball | Comments are off for this article

Henson and Zeller will have their hands full with Maryland's Jordan Williams Sunday. (Per OrangeandWhite.com)

What’s happened and to come in ACC basketball right here with the weekend preview edition of the ACC B-Ball Report…

ACC Standings…

School Conf. Pct. Overall Pct.
Duke 12-1 .923 26-2 .929
North Carolina 11-2 .846 21-6 .778
Florida State 9-4 .692 19-8 .704
Virginia Tech 8-5 .615 18-8 .692
Clemson 7-6 .538 18-9 .667
Maryland 7-6 .538 18-10 .643
Boston College 6-7 .462 16-11 .593
Miami 5-8 .385 17-11 .607
Virginia 5-8 .385 14-13 .519
NC State 4-9 .308 14-13 .519
Georgia Tech 3-10 .231 11-16 .407
Wake Forest 1-12 .077 8-20 .286

——–

Weekend Preview

Virginia Tech Looks for Marquee Win vs. Duke (Gobbler Country)

There are some matchups for the Hokies to take advantage of, but where Duke has a colossal advantage is depth. Tech can’t afford to make this a fast-paced game, so you’re probably going to see them try to make this an ugly game, like they usually do against better teams.

If the game is completely unwatchable, it’s advantage Tech.

Foul trouble will also be key for the Hokies. Allen and Davila got into foul trouble against Wake Forest early and it didn’t matter. Do the same against Duke and the game’s over. Duke doesn’t have the same foul advantage on the road as they have had at home this year, as Carolina March points out. This year, Duke’s foul advantage at home in ACC play is +18 in seven games and +4 in six road games.

But the most important thing overall for the Hokies is keeping their composure. This is something Tech just isn’t very good at in my opinion and a lot of it can be attributed to the team taking on the personality of the coach. Greenberg isn’t the most composed guy when games get to their critical moments and the same can be said for the team as well. They can’t let a call or a missed shot effect the next trip down the floor.

Preview: #1 Duke (12-1, 26-2) at VT (8-5, 18-8), Saturday at 9 PM (Tech Hoops)

Program changer.  You don’t get many opportunities at program changing wins, but VT has a shot at one on Saturday.  The whole nation (and world thanks to ESPN America) will be get a big glimpse of what Hokie Nation is like for roundball on Saturday with ESPN College Gameday (basketball) making its first ever trip to the ‘Burg with Rece, Hubert, Digger, and Jay Bilas, airing from 10 AM to Noon.  Then, the big show starts nine hours later with Tech taking on the #1, by God, duke blue devils at 9 PM on ESPN in OUR CASSELL.  I’m all in, you’re all in, and the players will be all in for sure.

Scouting Wake Forest: Blogger Q&A and Previewing Clemson-Wake (OrangeandWhite.com and Blogger So Dear)

(Per O&W) Us: What are the staples of Bzdelik’s system on offense and defense – and how is it different from the coach he replaced?

Rickman: Defensively, I have no freaking idea. Coach Bzdelik has never been a good defensive coach throughout his career. And the only system I see there is “let the other team get in the lane whenever they want and shoot wide open threes.” Yeah, sometimes they’re getting hands up, but there’s no close-outs, no help D, no crashing the boards, no cutting off at the baseline, really not much of anything.

On offense there’s the “complicated system” that we heard about coming in. It involves a lot of cuts and spacing, and it’s there…sometimes. But I still think it was the wrong call to try and install this with such a young team. That’s my opinion, and not necessarily a matter of right or wrong in general I guess, but I still see players thinking instead of acting, and that is causing tentativeness, as well as mental mistakes for prolonged periods of time, which is why you’ll see Wake go 5+ minutes without a FG in two out of every three games.

(Per BSD) 6) Play out the game. What do you see happening? What’s your final score?

Luckily for Wake Forest, the Tigers are coming off their worst home performance against UNC. Before that, Clemson was 5-0 at home with some of their best offensive performances of the year. The Deacs haven’t lost by less than 14 on the road yet in the ACC. I like Clemson’s D to disrupt Wake and lead to a number of easy baskets in a 75-59 Tigers win.

game preview: Boston College (From Old Virginia)

HOW WE CAN WIN

- Patience. Shots will come. BC’s defense has gotten even worse since we played them. They can’t force turnovers, and teams always find good shots. There are a multitude of ways to score on the Eagles. Patience, fortunately, is a strong suit of ours.

ACC Weekend Preview, Feb. 25 (ACCSports.com)

Key for the Terps

Dino Gregory. The underappreciated forward has been playing the best ball of his career as of late. He can provide a scoring punch and open space for Jordan Williams to maneuver on the inside.

Key for the Tar Heels

Get the ball into Kendall Marshall’s hands as much and as quickly as possible. Marshall can create easy baskets that most point guards can’t thanks to his extraordinary combination of court vision and passing skills.

Numbers Game

In its last game, Maryland’s bench combined for 26 points and 10 assists in a 78-62 win over Florida State … North Carolina leads the ACC in both offensive rebounding (13.9 per game) and defensive rebounding (28.7 per game) … North Carolina ranks last in the ACC in free throw percentage (65.7 percent).

Prediction

Maryland 80, North Carolina 77

Seminoles takes on Miami Hurricanes (Plant the Spear)

Who will step up?

At some point one of the other players on the team will have to step up and claim a consistent leadership position in the absence of Chris Singleton. This is just the third game without the star combo forward, but in the first two no single player was able to standout in both games. The Seminoles need someone to be assertive and set a standard early today in hopes that it will carry over through the final two games of the regular season. A victory today would be conference win #10 and #20 on the season overall. A nice benchmark to aim for.

Mid-Week Wrap

A Valiant Effort, But State Comes Up Short Against Heels Once Again (Riddick & Reynolds)

The effort, heart and emotion that was missing from the previous meeting was present tonight but the result was still the same.

In a game that was plenty entertaining over the bulk of it, State led by as much as 10 early but relinquished it en route to a 75-63 loss to the Tar Heels.

Game 28: Dominant second half carries Terps past Florida State (D1scourse.com)

Maybe Maryland authored its best game of the season against Florida State.

Maybe it didn’t.

Perhaps the Terrapins finally collected a victory with the potential to hold up as a quality victory in the eyes of college basketball’s most powerful arbiters, the NCAA tournament selection committee.

Perhaps not.

Regardless, Maryland emerged from a two-game homestand unscathed, collecting a 78-62 victory at Comcast Center against the short-handed Seminoles certain to offer some hope in the Terps’ long-term prospects.

UVa Slides Past Georgia Tech, Final Score 62-56 (Streaking the Lawn)

Virginia freshman Joe Harris continues to impress, as he led the team with three from long range in last night’s 62-56 win over Georgia Tech. The Cavaliers are back above .500 at 14-13, and are eighth in the conference at 5-8. Struggling Georgia Tech fell to 11-16, 3-10 ACC.

Senior guard Mustapha Farrakhan led the team with 17 points, and went 9-10 from the free throw line.

Last night’s game was the first time since defeating LSU on January 2 that the Cavaliers shot better than 70% from the free throw line with at least 10 attempts.

Full Weekend Slate/Our Picks

(44-15 on picks so far)

Saturday, February 26
Boston College at Virginia …………………….. RSN…..Noon
Pick: ‘Hoos 65-63
Miami at Florida State ………… ACC Network (split) ……. 2:00
Pick: ‘Noles 66-62
Georgia Tech at NC State ……. ACC Network (split) ……. 2:00
Pick: Wolfpack 72-60
Wake Forest at Clemson ………………………. RSN…… 4:00
Pick: Tigers 75-59.
Duke at Virginia Tech (ESPN Game Day) ….ESPN…… 9:00
Pick: Devils 73-66
Sunday, February 27
Maryland at North Carolina ……………………. FSN…… 7:45
Pick: Heels 75-67

——

A couple of good games to close out the weekend in Duke/Virginia Tech and Maryland/UNC – if the Terps take down UNC like ACCSports’ Andrew Skwara thinks…the NCAA picture gets very interesting for the ACC.

NCAA/ACC Tourney Projections – 02/24/11

Posted by Brandon Rink on February 24, 2011 under ACC Basketball | Comments are off for this article

The Hokies could benefit from not getting an ACC Tourney bye. (Per OrangeandWhite.com)

Did bi-weekly ACC projections last year around this time – well, with three games to go for each team…we start it up projecting the final ACC records and the affect on NCAA bids…

Projected ACC Standings

Team ACC Record ACC Seed Proj. Tiebreak
Duke 14-2 1
UNC 13-3 2
Florida State 11-5 3
Clemson 9-7 4 1-0
Virginia Tech 9-7 5 0-1
Maryland 8-8 6
Virginia 7-9 7 1-1, 1-0
Boston College 7-9 8 1-1, 0-1
Miami 6-10 9
NC State 5-11 10 1-0
Georgia Tech 5-11 11 0-1
Wake Forest 1-15 12

———————-

Projected ACC Tournament Matchups

1) Duke vs. 8) Boston College/9) Miami

2) UNC vs. 7) Virginia/10) NC State

3) Florida State vs. 6) Maryland/11) Georgia Tech

4) Clemson vs. 5) Virginia Tech/12) Wake Forest

Game Schedule

Day One (March 10)

12:00 (EST)–8) BC vs. 9) Miami
2:00–5) Virginia Tech vs. 12) Wake Forest
7:00–7) Virginia vs. 10) NC State
9:00–6) Maryland vs. 11) Georgia Tech

Day Two (March 11)

12:00–1) Duke vs. 8] BC/9) Miami
2:00–4) Clemson vs. 5) Virginia Tech/12) Wake Forest
7:00–2) UNC vs. 7) Virginia/10) NC State
9:00–3) Florida State vs. 6) Maryland/11) Georgia Tech

Day Three (March 12)

1:00–1) Duke vs. 8) BC/9) Miami (vs.) 4) Clemson vs. 5) Virginia Tech/12) Wake Forest
3:00–2) UNC vs. 7) Virginia/10) NC State (vs.) 3) FSU vs. 6) Maryland/11) Georgia Tech

Day Four (March 13)

1:00–ACC Championship

Gut NCAA Bid Feeling Now

In: Duke, UNC, Florida State.

Just Out: Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

Out: Maryland, Miami.

Gut NCAA Bid Feeling Projected

In: Duke, UNC, FSU, Virginia Tech.

Just Out: Clemson.

Out: Maryland, Boston College, Miami.

NCAA/ACC Tourney Notes

  • Looking over the projected ACC draw – the 5-seed really has an opportunity to grab a couple of wins before playing No. 1 Duke…and even there – they can vault into lock status with a win. In this case, it’s Virginia Tech and they would be playing Clemson for the second time in a week. With two wins, they are at 21-11 – beat Duke (or somebody that knocks them off) to get to the ACC Championship Game and they’re definitely in.
  • Clemson HAS to win the ACC Quarterfinal to get in, and an extra win in Greensboro couldn’t hurt at 9-7 in the ACC. With so many teams bubblicious, Clemson needs to distinguish themselves from the pack to make it.
  • If the cards fall like this, the ACC is looking at a max of five teams because Maryland would need a huge run to punch their ticket…might as well win the tournament to get in from 8-8.
  • With the way UNC is playing, gotta like their path to the championship game with a depleted FSU team as the top seed on their side of the bracket. (But of course, nothing will go like the regular season in Greensboro).
  • BC and Miami could be dangerous for that noon Friday matchup for Duke – maybe even more than the semi-matchups.
  • I’ll be interested to see just how easy those 5/12 and 6/11 games are against Wake and Georgia Tech. If they pull off upsets, bubbles will be burst at the ACC Tournament.
  • Final thought, maybe it’s a testament to the rise of mid-majors and strength of the Big East (projections putting a double-digit amount of teams in)…or a general mediocrity among the middle teams in the ACC, but it’s something that 3-4 ACC teams could be left out of the NCAAs with winning or even conference records. If anything, it speaks to the need of grabbing big wins out of conference these days. There’s very little room for error even with an expanded field.

Alright – two more weekends of ACC basketball + next week’s mid-week games before the ACC Tournament…who’s in? Who’s out? ACC B-Ball Report with weekend previews and picks coming up Friday…