NCAA/ACC Tourney Projections – 02/24/11

Posted by Brandon Rink on February 24, 2011 under ACC Basketball | Comments are off for this article

Did bi-weekly ACC projections last year around this time – well, with three games to go for each team…we start it up projecting the final ACC records and the affect on NCAA bids…

Projected ACC Standings

Team	ACC Record	ACC Seed	Proj. Tiebreak
Duke	14-2	1
UNC	13-3	2
Florida State	11-5	3
Clemson	9-7	4	1-0
Virginia Tech	9-7	5	0-1
Maryland	8-8	6
Virginia	7-9	7	1-1, 1-0
Boston College	7-9	8	1-1, 0-1
Miami	6-10	9
NC State	5-11	10	1-0
Georgia Tech	5-11	11	0-1
Wake Forest	1-15	12

———————-

Projected ACC Tournament Matchups

1) Duke vs. 8) Boston College/9) Miami

2) UNC vs. 7) Virginia/10) NC State

3) Florida State vs. 6) Maryland/11) Georgia Tech

4) Clemson vs. 5) Virginia Tech/12) Wake Forest

Game Schedule

Day One (March 10)

12:00 (EST)–8) BC vs. 9) Miami
2:00–5) Virginia Tech vs. 12) Wake Forest
7:00–7) Virginia vs. 10) NC State
9:00–6) Maryland vs. 11) Georgia Tech

Day Two (March 11)

12:00–1) Duke vs. 8] BC/9) Miami
2:00–4) Clemson vs. 5) Virginia Tech/12) Wake Forest
7:00–2) UNC vs. 7) Virginia/10) NC State
9:00–3) Florida State vs. 6) Maryland/11) Georgia Tech

Day Three (March 12)

1:00–1) Duke vs. 8) BC/9) Miami (vs.) 4) Clemson vs. 5) Virginia Tech/12) Wake Forest
3:00–2) UNC vs. 7) Virginia/10) NC State (vs.) 3) FSU vs. 6) Maryland/11) Georgia Tech

Day Four (March 13)

1:00–ACC Championship

Gut NCAA Bid Feeling Now

In: Duke, UNC, Florida State.

Just Out: Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

Out: Maryland, Miami.

Gut NCAA Bid Feeling Projected

In: Duke, UNC, FSU, Virginia Tech.

Just Out: Clemson.

Out: Maryland, Boston College, Miami.

NCAA/ACC Tourney Notes

• Looking over the projected ACC draw – the 5-seed really has an opportunity to grab a couple of wins before playing No. 1 Duke…and even there – they can vault into lock status with a win. In this case, it’s Virginia Tech and they would be playing Clemson for the second time in a week. With two wins, they are at 21-11 – beat Duke (or somebody that knocks them off) to get to the ACC Championship Game and they’re definitely in.
• Clemson HAS to win the ACC Quarterfinal to get in, and an extra win in Greensboro couldn’t hurt at 9-7 in the ACC. With so many teams bubblicious, Clemson needs to distinguish themselves from the pack to make it.
• If the cards fall like this, the ACC is looking at a max of five teams because Maryland would need a huge run to punch their ticket…might as well win the tournament to get in from 8-8.
• With the way UNC is playing, gotta like their path to the championship game with a depleted FSU team as the top seed on their side of the bracket. (But of course, nothing will go like the regular season in Greensboro).
• BC and Miami could be dangerous for that noon Friday matchup for Duke – maybe even more than the semi-matchups.
• I’ll be interested to see just how easy those 5/12 and 6/11 games are against Wake and Georgia Tech. If they pull off upsets, bubbles will be burst at the ACC Tournament.
• Final thought, maybe it’s a testament to the rise of mid-majors and strength of the Big East (projections putting a double-digit amount of teams in)…or a general mediocrity among the middle teams in the ACC, but it’s something that 3-4 ACC teams could be left out of the NCAAs with winning or even conference records. If anything, it speaks to the need of grabbing big wins out of conference these days. There’s very little room for error even with an expanded field.

Alright – two more weekends of ACC basketball + next week’s mid-week games before the ACC Tournament…who’s in? Who’s out? ACC B-Ball Report with weekend previews and picks coming up Friday…