FSU remains No. 1 in several polls and NCAA Tourney projections after losing their first ACC series of the season at Clemson last weekend (Pic per OrangeandWhite.com).
Here we go – the final weekend of ACC play before next week’s conference tournament…
ACC Standings/Weekend Schedule
Atlantic
1) FSU (22-5, 41-11) – Hosts NC State.
2) NC State (18-9, 37-13) – At FSU.
3) Clemson (16-11, 32-21) – At Wake Forest.
4) Wake Forest (10-17, 29-22) – Hosts Clemson.
5) Maryland (9-18, 31-22) – Hosts Virginia.
6) BC (9-18, 21-31) – Hosts Duke.
Coastal
1) UNC (19-8, 39-13) – Hosts Virginia Tech.
2) Virginia (16-11, 34-15-1) – At Maryland.
3) Miami (14-13, 32-18) – At Georgia Tech.
4) Georgia Tech (11-16, 31-22) – Hosts Miami.
5) Virginia Tech (11-16, 34-18) – At UNC.
6) Duke (7-20, 19-33) – At Boston College.
ACC Tourney Outlook (As of May 17)
Division A
1) FSU
4) Virginia
5) Clemson
8) Virginia Tech
Division B
2) UNC
3) NC State
6) Miami
7) Georgia Tech
ACC Tourney Bubble: Wake Forest is 1 GB, owning tiebreakers over the teams ahead of them, GT and VT.
ACC Baseball Notes/Weekend Preview
NCAA Projections: Looking at SE Baseball, Perfect Game and ESPN respectively – Mark Etheridge has Virginia Tech sneaking in the field – FSU and UNC as national seeds, and Clemson headed to Purdue; Kendall Rogers has Georgia Tech in his last five in with the Hokies out; Jeremy Mills still has the Hokies firmly in, and Maryland just outside the cut-line with Clemson headed to Arizona. Wake Forest is just a spot out of the mix in SEBaseball. Despite dropping 2-of-3 to the Tigers, FSU remains the No. 1 national seed in all three projections.
FSU can wrap up the No. 1 seed in the ACC Tourney with a win over NC State or a UNC loss to Virginia Tech this weekend. The Heels are guaranteed at least a 2-seed after clinching the Coastal over the weekend. They face a Hokies squad in Chapel Hill that can’t afford getting swept, on the bubble for both the ACC and NCAA Tournament. Virginia Tech hasn’t won an ACC road series yet, but they did take at least a game from everyone but Florida State. The ‘Noles have an even shorter turnaround than the rest of the ACC with these Thursday starts, after playing a doubleheader Monday thanks to rain and TV. They dropped their first ACC series of the season in Clemson, salvaging game three and part two of the doubleheader Monday, 9-5. NC State hits Tallahassee having won 13-of-14 and their last five series. A road series win at No. 1 FSU could put them over the top for a national seed with just the ACC Tourney to go. They’re as balanced as it comes in the ACC and should at least steal a game (official pick: FSU takes 2-of-3). I underrated UNC last weekend, and they’ve won 10-in-a-row, so they should finish strong taking 2-of-3 from the Hokies.
It’s do-or-die for Wake Forest and Maryland, both needing an ACC series win to keep ACC and NCAA Tourney hopes alive. The Deacs host the streaking Tigers, who’ve won 20-of-29 and six of their last seven weekend series (most recently over No. 1 FSU). Wake has stumbled of late, losing 6 of their last 10, but do own series wins over fellow bubble teams Virginia Tech, Maryland and Georgia Tech. A game back from the Hokies and Yellow Jackets, all they need is a series win and one of the two to lose a series this weekend to slip into the ACC Tournament. At the front and back of the rotation, the Deacs are solid with lefties Brian Holmes (6-2, 2.82 ERA) and Tim Cooney (5-6, 3.76 ERA), and they face a taxed Clemson staff, which will go with RHP Dominic Leone (6-3, 5.19 ERA) in game one with the rest of the rotation TBD due to the Monday doubleheader. The Tigers have probably the best top of the order in ACC 1-4 (all hitting over .300), and they’ve hit their stride down the stretch, led by third basemen Richie Shaffer (.343 BA/10 HR/43 RBI). Clemson takes 2-of-3 to keep Wake out of the ACC Tourney (unless one of the Techs are swept).
Against a balanced Virginia team, Maryland likely needs a sweep since they’re two games out of the last ACC Tourney spot and this could be their last shot to boost the tourney resume. The Terps still have a top-30 RPI, ranking ahead of Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech. They might get one, but I can’t see the sweep they could really use, especially coming off a layoff of over a week due to exams.
Georgia Tech can do wonders in shoring up their NCAA Tournament chances hosting Miami. Russ Chandler Stadium hasn’t been quite as hard on the ACC as most years, with both FSU and Clemson coming in and winning series, but something has to give, as the Hurricanes are 2-7 in their last three ACC road series (FSU/Clemson/Virginia Tech). Miami hopes to have catcher Peter O’Brien back (.354 BA/10 HR/38 RBI), who’s been out of action since April 15. Georgia Tech needs this one, and I think they get it.
Last and least, the division cellar dwellers BC and Duke meet in Chestnut Hill. The Blue Devils haven’t won an ACC game since April 20 and not a series since March 23-25 at Virginia Tech. Though just two games ahead in the standings, the Eagles have fared much better of late, sweeping Wake Forest in their last home series and stealing games from both FSU and NC State in the previous series. Both struggle mightily with pitching and fielding, but BC has been able to score more and that’s why they take this one to close each team’s respective seasons, having little-to-no hope of an ACC Tourney bid (BC could slip in if they’re tied with Wake Forest or Georgia Tech for one of the last spots in the field – currently a game back from the Deacs who are out now and two from GT who is in).
NC State faces a key series in Blacksburg, keeping a steady eye on what's going on in Clemson between the Tigers and Seminoles. (Pic per OrangeandWhite.com)
Clemson and FSU renew their rivalry in TigerTown, while the rest play for NCAA positioning with just this weekend and next left in the regular season…
ACC Standings/Weekend Schedule
Atlantic
1) FSU (21-3, 40-9) – At Clemson.
2) NC State (16-8, 34-12) – At Virginia Tech.
3) Clemson (14-10, 29-20) – Hosts FSU.
4) Wake Forest (9-15, 27-20) – At Miami.
5) Maryland (9-18, 31-22) – Off.
6) BC (9-18, 20-29) – Fordham.
Coastal
1) UNC (16-8, 35-13) – At Duke.
2) Virginia (14-10, 31-14-1) – Hosts Georgia Tech.
3) Miami (12-12, 30-17) – Hosts Wake Forest.
4) Georgia Tech (10-14, 30-19) – At Virginia.
5) Virginia Tech (10-14, 32-16) – Hosts NC State.
6) Duke (7-17, 19-29) – Hosts UNC.
ACC Tourney Outlook (As of May 11)
Division A
1) FSU
4) Virginia
5) Clemson
8) Virginia Tech
Division B
2) UNC
3) NC State
6) Miami
7) Georgia Tech
ACC Tourney Bubble: Wake Forest is 1 GB, owning tiebreakers over the teams ahead of them, GT and VT.
ACC Baseball Notes/Weekend Preview
NCAA Projections: Looking at SEBaseball, Perfect Game and ESPN respectively – Mark Etheridge shook up his ACC projections with Maryland and Wake out like the rest, but giving the conference four hosts with FSU (NS), UNC (NS), NC State and Virginia; Kendall Rogers also has four ACC hosts and two national seeds with the Terps and Deacs not even in the next 10 out; Jeremy Mills now has the Hokies more firmly in the field with Maryland and Wake Forest out. Obviously, it’s crunch-time for the Deacs, as they can’t get swept this weekend at Miami and expect to stay in the hunt for an NCAA bid. Maryland is off for exams with a crucial home series against Virginia next weekend for ACC and NCAA Tourney chances. On the right side of the bubble, the Techs probably could still play their way out, and Virginia needs a strong finish to lock down a host bid.
For the first time in a while, the FSU/Clemson series, in TigerTown this year, probably won’t have an effect on the Atlantic race, with the Seminoles holding a five-game division lead with six to go. The Tigers are hurting at pitcher, down ace starter Kevin Brady and reliever Matt Campbell – off from a staff that’s struggled already – going into a stretch of seven games in eight days. They’ve won five of their last six weekend series though (only lost to NC State), but also dropped midweek contests to Presbyterian, Western Carolina and Coastal Carolina around the stretch. FSU has lost two of three (Maryland and Stetson) coming off its longest winning streak of the season (10 games). The Terps touched-up the Seminoles’ bullpen in the final three innings for five runs (three earned) to steal the Monday game. Clemson is FSU’s toughest road weekend series yet, and the Tigers have won 5-of-6 against them, so we’ll see what the unanimous No. 1 ‘Noles have in them this weekend. (Predictions-wise, I’d say FSU takes 2-of-3).
Virginia hosts Georgia Tech and NC State travels to the Commonwealth to Blacksburg, both looking to boost their regional host profile. The ‘Hoos have won eight in a row and still sit atop the across the conference in team batting. GT is on a bit of a roll themselves, winning 9-of-12 since losing the series at Wake Forest. The Hokies are in a similar spot NCAAs-wise, having won three of their last four ACC series, but take on State coming off 9-day layoff for exams. The Wolfpack are playing their best ball at the right time en route to a 10-game winning streak, keeping hope alive for a national seed. After starting 0-3 in ACC play at home against Duke (yeah, really), Virginia Tech has gone 7-2 at English Field against conference opponents in series wins over BC, Miami and Maryland. I’d guess one of the underdogs challenges for a series between these two – going with the home teams taking 2-of-3.
With some help, UNC can wrap up the Coastal and clinch a top 2 seed in the ACC Tournament, fighting for a national seed, in Durham this weekend. Friday’s matchup features two of the ACC’s best, UNC LHP Kent Emanuel (6-3, 1.80 ERA) v. Duke RHP Marcus Stroman (5-4, 2.36 ERA). The Blue Devils have won just three games in their last five ACC series. Down in Coral Gables, the Deacs and Hurricanes are working to improve their NCAA standings with Miami firmly in and Wake on the bubble-out (according to projections). The Demon Deacons have won two of their last three ACC series, but come off a 3-game sweep at the hands of Atlantic cellar-dweller BC. Miami has won 12-straight and own a 26-5 all-time record against the Deacs, but have lost 8-of-their-last-9 in ACC play. I’d expect the Hurricanes to turn it around and at least take the series, while Duke could steal a game from UNC.
BC hosts Fordham (21-30) for a couple games this weekend, while Maryland is off.
NCAA Projections: Looking at SEBaseball, Perfect Game and ESPN respectively – Surprisingly enough, Mark Etheridge still has all 10 ACC teams in that have a chance, and none in the last five in; Kendall Rogers pegs FSU as the No. 1 overall seed with both Techs in safely and Wake Forest and Maryland out. Jeremy Mills has the Terps and Deacs out, but Virginia Tech in the last five in with one more ACC host than the rest. Traveling to FSU this weekend, Maryland could very well be on the outside looking in on all three projections come next week, or use it as an opportunity to steal a good resume-building win or two. I’m going to say nine is the No. the ACC gets in the field of 64, which leaves the Terps with the most to prove down the stretch after getting swept by Wake Forest earlier this season.
Exams are at full-force, meaning there’s just two ACC series this weekend – Boston College at UNC and Maryland at FSU. Mike Martin’s Seminoles are on their second 8-game winning streak of the season, sweeping series from Miami and Rhode Island the last two weeks and now the projected No. 1 overall national seed by a couple different services. The Terps still lay claim to the top team ERA in the ACC, and have moved up from 11th to 9th in team batting. They’ve yet to take an ACC road series, but have only been swept once (at Wake Forest early in the season). Seminole sluggers 1B Jayce Boyd and CF James Ramsey are 1-2 in the ACC and account for 31 percent of FSU’s RBIs (85) and 44.4 percent of their home runs (12). What does all this mean for this weekend? I’d be shocked if Florida State doesn’t take the series, but not surprised if Maryland staves off the sweep.
BC is coming in hot chasing an ACC Tourney spot after sweeping Wake Forest last week (first sweep in two seasons for the Eagles). They’ve hung tough in conference play after riding a 10-game losing streak at one point this season. After a week off from ACC play, UNC can go a long way this weekend in increasing its lead in the Coastal with just two ACC series left, securing a top-2 seed in the ACC Tournament and improving its chances for a national seed. The Tar Heels don’t leave the state of North Carolina for the rest of the season with two home series, area midweek games and a road series at Duke. If they close strong, they might not leave NC before the Super Regionals. Have to think that’s an advantage, but BC could jump up and bite them this weekend if they let their guard down.
Around the ACC: NC State, Clemson, Georgia Tech and Miami all host non-conference opponents this weekend, while Virginia, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech and Duke are off. Out of the four, Clemson has the toughest opponent coming in with College of Charleston (31-13), who is 0-15 all-time against the Tigers. Clemson’s ace (Kevin Brady) and top reliever (Matt Campbell) were casualties of last weekend’s series in Atlanta, both out for at least the next few weeks. The Cougars rank in the top-10 nationally in ERA (2.83) and home runs (47). Facing a shuffled rotation, College of Charleston certainly has a great chance at grabbing that first win against Clemson, but the Tigers have played well on the weekend of late (won four of their last five series, including two sweeps).
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