Duke has weathered the storm in six ACC road environments so far for a perfect record, but the trip to FSU could be the toughest yet. (Pic per OrangeandWhite.com)
Some really fun games this week as we get into crunch-time…
(54-18 on ACC season picks)
Tuesday
7:00 PM ET – Clemson 63 Georgia Tech 58 (Atlanta) – Both come off road games – Georgia Tech losing by a Dorenzo Hudson buzzer-beater in overtime, and Clemson’s streak-ending bid in UNC slipping away into a blowout late. For a second-straight game, Glen Rice Jr. will ride the bench with a suspension – he led the Yellow Jackets in Clemson with 19 points in the 64-62 loss earlier this season, while Clemson’s leading scorer Andre Young posted a career-high 29-points. Georgia Tech may be without another guard in Jason Morris also with a foot injury – leaving them with just six scholarship players. Either way, Brad Brownell’s Tigers are the better team, and the Yellow Jackets aren’t able to recover quick enough from the heartbreaker in Cassell Coliseum.
8:00 PM ET – Miami 68 Maryland 63 (College Park) – Up-and-down the Terps have gone of late – topping Clemson in Littlejohn and dominating BC at home, while losing by 27 at Virginia and 18 at Duke. Both dealing with knee ailments, Durand Scott and Reggie Johnson played major minutes in a 74-56 win over Wake Forest, scoring 24 points and grabbing 15 rebounds between them. These two dueled to two OTs in Coral Gables before Miami came out on top 90-86. The Terps’ Terrell Stoglin scored 33 points, but Miami had five players score in double-digits (Scott with 24 points). Miami center Kenny Kadji missed that game, and that might be the difference here with the Hurricanes at full strength in College Park Tuesday.
8:00 PM ET – UNC 74 NC State 67 (Raliegh) – There’s a game too? Well, the earlier matchup didn’t work out too well for the Wolfpack in Chapel Hill – allowing 48 percent shooting (31-64) and hitting just 37 percent themselves (21-57) in a 74-55 loss. They’re not playing much better now – coming off a 76-62 loss and hitting just 17-of-58 shots…and course, that Duke loss too. The Wolfpack displayed for 30 or so minutes in Cameron they can compete with the bigs in the ACC, but I just don’t like how they matchup here.
9:00 PM ET – Virginia 56 Virginia Tech 53 (Blacksburg) – Virginia Tech went into Charlottesville, and despite scoring 47 points, won (mainly because Virginia shot 33 percent from the field and 7 percent from three, 1-14). The Cavaliers have lost their last three on the road, but all in tough environments (FSU, UNC and Clemson). These two rank last and second-to-last in possessions per 40 minutes in the conference, and I like the ‘Hoos to grind out a win here for a little revenge for the series split.
Thursday
7:00 PM ET – FSU 71 Duke 66 (Tallahassee) – One stays atop the ACC, while the other falls a game back with just three to go in the race for that top seed in the ACC Tournament. FSU charged to the front of the pack by shooting 54 percent from the field and 50 percent from the perimeter in a 76-73 win at Duke – a balanced effort across the lineup. At No. 1 in ACC offensive and defensive field goal percentage (45.7 off./38.9 def. ), and 6-0 in conference home games (68.6-57 average final) – it’s hard to go against the Seminoles in a charged atmosphere ready to take another step towards one of the best seasons in FSU basketball history. (Of course, Duke hasn’t lost a conference road game either – 6-0 also, winning at UNC, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Virginia Tech and BC already this season. This should be a fun one.)
UNC swept games against Miami and Clemson last week to stay as a 2-seed in NCAA projections. (Pic per OrangeandWhite.com)
Here’s a look at this week’s brackets…
ESPN, Feb. 20: Joe Lunardi isn’t on the Duke one-seed bandwagon with both the Tar Heels and Blue Devils as 2-seeds on opposite sides of the bracket. He’s high on FSU (4-seed), while Miami just slips into the First Four.
SB Nation, Feb. 20: Chris Dobbertean still has the whole gang from the ACC in – Miami in the field as a 12-seed and NC State in the First Four.
D1scourse, Feb. 20: Patrick Stevens pegs Duke as a one-seed, but NC State is the last team left out of the field (man, Thursday hurt…and Saturday for that matter for the Wolfpack). Stevens also has FSU as a 4-seed – and Miami as high as I’ve seen as a 10-seed.
Analysis: Have to think NC State has to take at least three of their last four to move to 21-10 (10-6) and do some work in the ACC Tourney to secure a NCAA bid. They host UNC and Miami – travel to Clemson and Virginia Tech. Three of four is doable, but they’ll have to recover from a couple big missed opportunities. Miami could use three of four to close the season as well, but taking two with a home win over FSU could do the trick as well (and no first round ACC Tourney exit). There’s a long road ahead for Duke’s No. 1 seed chances – hitting FSU on Thursday and hosting UNC to finish the season. They’ll have navigate the ACC Tournament as well, but right now, they’ve positioned themselves well. Of course, the Tar Heels have the road ahead that if they run the table into the NCAAs (ACC Tourney included) – they’ll be in the conversation there too (trips to NC State and Virginia should be interesting this week). Meanwhile, if FSU is going to capture an ACC regular season title – they must take down Duke Thurs., at least split the road trips to Virginia and Miami, and finish with a season finale win over Clemson at home. It’s going to be a very interesting race for that No. 1 seed in the ACC Tourney in these final two weeks.
Virginia struggled with Joe Harris in his first full game playing with a hand injury at Clemson - Maryland comes to town Saturday (Pic per OrangeandWhite.com).
Tough bounceback games on both ends this weekend for a couple teams, while Charlie Brown (Clemson) tries to kick that football for the 56th time in Chapel Hill…
(49-17 on ACC season picks)
Saturday
1:00 PM ET – Miami 66 Wake Forest 61 (Coral Gables) – The Hurricanes received a scare Thursday after the UNC loss when both Reggie Johnson and Durand Scott had MRIs done on their knees – both came out negative, but Scott is still questionable for Saturday. They catch a break because the Deacs, though coming off a win over Georgia Tech, don’t exactly come to town on fire right now.
1:00 PM ET – NC State 72 FSU 67 (Raliegh) – FSU comes in off the emotional high of the late comeback win over Virginia Tech, while State is on an emotional low after coughing up a 20-point second-half lead at Duke. The Wolfpack can’t lose this one and want to feel secure about their NCAA chances. After a run of scoring 90, 84, 76, 75 and 68 in ACC play, the ‘Noles haven’t scored more than 64 points (and less than 60 four times) in their last four games (3-1 in that stretch) – a more FSU-like run. At 9-2 in conference play, both of the Seminoles’ losses have come on the road – 79-59 at Clemson and 64-60 at Boston College. Could go either way, but I’ll stick with the home team.
1:00 PM ET – Virginia 62 Maryland 54 (Charlottesville) – The Cavaliers’ first game with second-leading scorer Joe Harris’ hand wrapped up (after fracturing it at UNC last Saturday) didn’t exactly go smoothly (18 turnovers, 60-48 loss at Clemson). Maryland’s Terrell Stoglin didn’t miss a start after airing some frustrations on Twitter last week – instead, he went off for 24 points in the Terps’ 81-65 win over BC. Maryland almost grabbed a win at Miami (90-86 double OT loss) and held off Clemson for their first road victory of the season, 64-62. If the same teams show up from the midweek games, Maryland has a good shot here, but Virginia will limit mistakes and keep the Terps at arms-length.
3:00 PM ET – Virginia Tech 64 Georgia Tech 59 (Blacksburg) – Georgia Tech just isn’t good at basketball this year, but the Hokies have been known for the occasional inexplicable loss too (like say, shooting 44 percent on free throws and losing an 8-point minute-and-a-half-to-go lead to a Michael Snaer buzzer-beater).
4:00 PM ET – UNC 73 Clemson 60 (Chapel Hill) – 56th time the charm? We’ll find out Saturday in a battle of diverging styles, but both are riding two-game winning streaks into Clemson’s to Chapel Hill, where the Tigers have neeeeeeevvvvveeeeerrrr won (0-55). Unless the Tigers shoot lights-out and UNC is disinterested, I’d expect more of the same here.
Sunday
6:00 PM ET – Duke 68 Boston College 61 (Chestnut Hill) – Duke at BC is one of those matchups that doesn’t really catch your eye, but they’ve been pretty close over the last couple years – Duke by 3 in 2010, BC by 6 in 2009, Duke by 8 in 2007 and Duke by 2 in 2006. Coming off the comeback against NC State, this is a definite trap game for the Blue Devils, but en route to a 5-0 ACC road start, only one game has been within five points (that guy Austin Rivers hit a big shot at the end against UNC – heard of that game?).
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